昨天的公投结果已出，希腊人们决定不接受援助机构提出的建议。我感觉这像是 “要钱没有，要命有一条！” 情形很严峻。接下来是双方有多大意愿回到谈判桌上继续谈，而且谈的结果将是怎样？这很大因素上将取决于欧洲的政客们。尽管希腊退出欧盟的可能性增加，但AMP首席经济师Bevan认为：退出应该避免，因为这个结果没有赢家，最大的输家是希腊。全文如下：
The “No” vote in the Greek referendum this morning has moved Greece a step closer to exiting the Euro zone. The immediate issue now is the willingness of the various parties to resume talks.
The Greek Prime Minister has, not surprisingly, already announced his willingness to resume negotiations. But he will need willingness to resume discussions on the part of the institutions and Europe’s political leaders for any progress to be made. In that regard the upcoming meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande will be critical as will the EU summit that has been scheduled for Tuesday.
The next critical date is July 20 when Greece is scheduled to make a €3.5 billion payment to the European Central Bank. In the meantime expect more Greece-related market volatility and no rush on the part of European leaders to find a resolution too far ahead of that date. As I said last week Greece is already getting a taste of life outside the Euro zone which will put public pressure on its own Government to find a way-forward while remaining in the common currency.
Predicting the outcome from here is challenging because it’s largely about politics. Politics made the early part of the crisis easy to predict: bail Greece (and others) out or precipitate the failure of the Euro project. But politics has also meant the elephant in the room – Greece’s elephant-sized public debt – hasn’t been able to be dealt with. No European leader has yet been prepared to tell their tax-payers they are going to wear the cost of a Greek debt write-off, let alone deal with the moral hazard implications for Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy.
Debt relief, at least without significant concessions from Athens, is still a step too far. However, post-referendum, Mr Tsipras thinks debt restructuring is on the table and his negotiating power is enhanced. I think that’s optimistic.
So the odds of a Greek exit from the Euro-zone just went up. But, while the strength of my conviction has diminished over the last couple of weeks, I still think exit will be avoided. But that view continues to rely on the point that no-one wins if Greece does exit – and the biggest loser will be Greece itself.
Last week we published an Insight Paper “Greek Turmoil and the Potential Implications for Investors”. The section on implications for investors remains valid. You can find that paper here.