数据透视:新西兰净移民

到今年一月,移民的净流入已经达到53,797人,估计未来几个月将达到60,000人。新移民的到来对经济有一定的影响,如劳务市场、消费、房地产等。AMP首席经济师Bevan认为这些影响将使央行在未来的一段时期内保持现行的货币政策。全文如下:

Data Insight: NZ net migration

Key points:

  • Net inward migration reached a fresh year-to-date peak of 53797 in January 2015, up from 50922 in the year to December 2014.  The total appears on a trajectory towards 60000 over the next few months.
  • The high net inflow continues to reflect New Zealand’s strong relative economic and labour market performance, especially when compared with Australia.
  • Strong population growth will continue to support growth in retail spending and contribute to the current supply/demand imbalance in the housing market.
  • At the same time, it will continue to contribute to growth in the labour force which is helping keep skills shortages and wage pressures in check at a time of strong employment growth.
  • That means there are both pluses and minuses for the Reserve Bank which supports the case for monetary policy remaining on hold for the foreseeable future.

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